A look at 100 key demographic blocs, and how Trump and Clinton are faring among themPosted: June 27, 2016 Filed under: The Index, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Republican Party, Reuters, U.S. politics 8 Comments
Polls, polls, polls. Every day, it seems there is a new poll. She’s up. She’s down. He’s up. He’s really down.
What does it mean?
To many media outlets, polls are cheap click bait to drive web traffic. To cable news networks, they are the score in the latest inning of an endless political baseball game. There are some smart polling analysts, but most stories about polls are politically shallow and journalistically useless.
As a political reporter who has covered every presidential race since 1980, I hope I can offer you a respite from pedestrian polling analysis. Welcome to “The Index,” a new analytical feature that will run periodically through Election Day 2016. I hope I can bring you something new, different and interesting.
Here’s my angle: I will analyze the 2016 presidential election through the voting preferences of 100 different demographic blocs. Thirty-three of them are part of Donald Trump’s Republican base. Thirty-three of them are part of Hillary Clinton’s Democratic base. And 34 of them are battleground groups — keys to both candidates’ paths to the White House.
A few of the groups are the basic demographic groups you are accustomed to hearing about: Republicans and Democrats, very liberal and very conservative voters, African Americans and born-again whites. I included these as tests of the loyalty of core voting groups for each party.
But I’m also looking at some groups you don’t read much about, the kinds of groups that will tip you off about the way the election is going. Among them: Latinos making more than $100,000 a year, white men under age 30, families with active duty military or veterans, white southerners with college degrees, homeowners, moms with kids at home, Midwestern white men, white Catholic women, even Mormon women.
I’ll analyze the different support levels of Latino voters in the Southeastern United States (where Cubans have some influence in Florida), the Southwest (from Texas to Arizona), and the Pacific coast. Differing levels of support in each region could be a tipoff as to whether states like Arizona or Georgia are in play, or whether Trump has any chance in Florida or New Mexico.
In each update, I will describe which candidate is leading among each group, and you can easily see how much better or worse than the national norm that is. The reason is simple: As the “horserace” changes from week to week, a key is whether a certain voting bloc is skewing more heavily toward Clinton or Trump. Clinton currently leads every recent national poll, but if the race ends up close, that variation from the norm will be important.
The information for the feature comes from Reuters’ polling data, which is available, open source, on the internet. I am using Reuters’ rolling five-day averages for most of my analysis. I chose Reuters’ numbers because the poll is respected, but, most of all, because the global news service makes the information available to anyone. You can check behind me to examine my methodology — or to create new searches of your own.
One small asterisk (*): Certain subgroups are too small to have a statistically significant counts on the five-day average. In the cases marked with an asterisk (*), I have included data for these groups from the past 30 days of polling. One warning: Subgroups are, by definition, smaller than the entire survey, so they have a larger margin of error and more volatility from survey to survey.
With no further introduction, here is the first set of data:
Clinton 40.3%, Trump 31.3%
Note: (C) means that Clinton leads by more than the 9 point national difference. (T) means that her lead with the group is less than her national lead.
- Latinos earning >$100K Clinton +24* (C)
- White Catholic men Clinton +11 (C)
- Great Plains states Clinton+11 (C)
- Voters earning $75K+ Clinton +11.1 (C)
- White men under 30 Clinton +10 (C)
- Men Clinton +9.7 (C)
- Families with active duty military or veteran Clinton +9.6* (C)
- Active duty military Clinton +9.4* (C)
- Voters earning between $50K-100K Clinton +9.3 (C)
- Midwestern white men Clinton +9
- Women Clinton +8.7 (T)
- Whites earning >$150K Clinton +8 (T)
- Unmarried white women Clinton +7.9 (T)
- White single, never married Clinton +6 (T)
- White divorced Clinton +6 (T)
- Whites earning between $50-75K Clinton +5 (T)
- Midwest Clinton +4.9 (T)
- Great Lakes Clinton +3 (T)
- White Catholic Clinton +3 (T)
- White women, no children at home Clinton +2.8 (T)
- Whites earning between $50-$100K Clinton 2.7 (T)
- Whites under age 40 Clinton +1.2 (T)
- Homeowners Clinton +1.9 (T)
- Whites earning between $75K-$100K Clinton +1 (T)
- White southern women with college degree Clinton +0.4* (T)
- Independent Tie (T)
- Married voters Trump +1 (T)
- White southerners with college degree Trump +2.1* (T)
- Southern white men with college degree Trump +3.9* (T)
- Whites 50-65 Trump +4 (T)
- Lean conservative Trump +4 (T)
- Midwestern white women Trump +5 (T)
- White Catholic women Trump +5 (T)
- Mormon women Trump +8* (T)
- Voted for Romney Trump +67.6 (T)
- Republicans Trump +52.4 (T)
- Very conservative voters Trump +45 (T)
- Moderately conservative whites Trump +35 (T)
- White born-again men Trump +35 (T)
- Southern white men Trump +33 (T)
- White born-again voters Trump +32.7 (T)
- White Tea Partiers Trump +30.5 (T)
- White born-again women Trump +30 (T)
- Whites who attend church at least once a week Trump +26 (T)
- Southern white women without college degree Trump +26 (T)
- Midwestern men without college degree Trump +26 (T)
- White women, children at home Trump +17 (T)
- Southern white men without college degree Trump +15 (T)
- White non-college grads Trump +14.3 (T)
- Southern white women Trump +13 (T)
- Whites 65+ Trump +13 (T)
- Mormons Trump +13* (T)
- White independents who voted for Romney Trump +13 (T)
- White Catholic over 40 Trump +12 (T)
- White married voters Trump +10.6 (T)
- Whites $100K-$150K Trump +9 (T)
- Southeast Trump +8.6 (T)
- South Trump +8.2 (T)
- Southwest Trump +7 (T)
- Whites 50+ Trump +6.9 (T)
- White voters Trump +6.4 (T)
- Veterans Trump +5.7* (T)
- White, children at home Trump +5.2 (T)
- White non-college grads earning <$50K Trump +5 (T)
- White voters earning less than $50K Trump +2.8 (T)
- Non-college grads Trump +0.1 (T)
- Rocky Mountain West Clinton +4 (T)
- African Americans who attend church at least once a week Clinton +71.6 (C)
- African Americans Clinton +70.6 (C)
- Voted for Obama Clinton +68.2 (C)
- Latino voters in West Clinton +60* (C)
- Very liberal voters Clinton +59.4 (C)
- Democrats Clinton +50.1 (C)
- Latino voters in Southwest Clinton +49* (C)
- Asian American voters Clinton +45 (C)
- Voters with advanced degrees Clinton +45 (C)
- Minority voters without college degrees Clinton +41 (C)
- White Catholic under 40 Clinton +35 (C)
- Students Clinton +33 (C)
- Voters with college degrees Clinton +32.2 (C)
- College graduates Clinton +32.2 (C)
- Latina voters Clinton +29.8* (C)
- LGBT voters Clinton +27 (C)
- Latino voters in Southeast Clinton +24* (C)
- Latino voters nationally Clinton +24* (C)
- Unmarried women Clinton +22.6 (C)
- White voters with college degree Clinton +21.1 (C)
- White men with college degree Clinton +21 (C)
- White women with college degree Clinton +20 (C)
- Voters who never attend religious services Clinton +19.3 (C)
- White students Clinton +19.5 (C)
- Southerners with college degree Clinton +19 (C)
- Latino men Clinton +18* (C)
- Voters under 40 Clinton +16.4 (C)
- Far West Clinton Clinton Clinton +16 (C)
- Mid-Atlantic Clinton +15 (C)
- Voters who attend religious services once a month or less Clinton +15 (C)
- New England Clinton +14 (C)
- Voters under 30 Clinton +13.9 (C)
- Women with no children at home Clinton +10.9 (C)
In the next few days, I will post some of the analytical highlights of this first data dump, explaining which subgroups’ results I think are the most important and surprising. I look forward to sharing the 2016 political roller coaster with you.
Thanks for taking the time to do this analysis , Rick. I certainly need help drilling down in the forest. (This election often seems like a case where, for once, the forest is obscuring the trees.) I look forward to following along. I’m sharing this with my readers.
No Union members counted?
For some reason, Reuters did not ask that question. I don’t know why. Good point. It’d be very valuable for analysis.
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