China Radio International asked me to analyze the November 6 U.S. midterm elections. Instead of staying up all night watching the results in Washington, as I used to do during my 35 years of covering politics, I spent a day of my midterm (exam) week at Tsinghua University monitoring the returns, taking advantage of the 13-hour time difference to avoid sleep deprivation.
Here is a lightly edited transcript of my CRI Q&A:
Q: What’s your reaction to the election result?
A: It was exactly the result I expected. Donald Trump’s decision to divide the country along class and racial lines helped Republicans make gains in the Senate but it doomed them in the House. And I think Trump made a rational political decision: sacrifice the House to keep the Senate, where his nominees for executive office and the courts must be confirmed. This split verdict of the voters strengthens Trump as far as nominations are concerned, but it will make it hard for him to pass any legislation unless it is truly bipartisan. It also will subject him to aggressive oversight by the new Democratic committee chairmen in the newly Democratic House.
Q: To what extent do you think this is going to reshape the political landscape of America?
A: It confirms that 2016 was not a fluke and that Trump has realigned American politics. On the one hand, some suburban voters are switching to the Democratic Party, and women and younger voters are becoming more and more Democratic. But Trump has consolidated the realignment of white working-class voters and has managed to maintain the support of many educated white men in the suburbs. I think it means at least two more years of deeply divided politics and a focus by both parties on a few states that will determine the 2020 election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Arizona and probably Florida.
Q: Donald Trump said two days before the elections that he planned to focus on the Senate. He declared the election results a “tremendous success” for Republicans. In what ways could this be a victory for Donald Trump?
A: Well, it’s a victory because he kept control of the Senate, and even strengthened the Republican majority. He is directly responsible for that with his highly charged rhetoric and his aggressive campaigning. Five new senators owe Trump their jobs. It means that Trump will have virtual carte blanche on nominations for administration positions and federal judgeships for the next two years.
Q: Do you think Donald Trump should be given the credit for Republicans keeping the Senate red?
A: Yes, he deserves credit. And so does Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Trump figured out a way to motivate his base. Democrats were enthusiastic about going to the polls to vote against Republicans. They figured out a way, with the Supreme Court nomination fight over Brett Kavanaugh, to charge up Republican base voters. Trump understands the Trump voters better than the American media does.
Q: With divided leadership in Congress and a president who has taken an expansive view of executive power, is Washington going to see even deeper political polarization and legislative gridlock?
A: Because the Democrats control the House, there will either be bipartisanship or gridlock. Judging by Trump’s track record, I would bet on gridlock. Unless Trump completely changes his persona and suddenly becomes a statesman, Washington will devolve into gridlock and recriminations. The House will investigate Trump. The Senate will support Trump. The most likely compromises will come when Congress debates spending bills, because they have to figure out a way to agree to pay for government operations.
Q: The 2018 midterms are viewed by many as a national referendum on President Trump. Why is that? Is that what usually happens in the U.S.?
A: Midterms are rarely a referendum on the president. The 2010 midterms were a referendum on Obamacare and government spending to counteract the Great Recession. The 2006 midterms were not a referendum on George W. Bush but a rejection of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is a saying in Washington that in Congress, all politics is local. In Donald Trump’s Washington, all politics is all Trump, all the time.
It was a referendum on Trump because he made it a referendum on himself. He could have made it a referendum on a strong economy, but he decided that dividing voters over issues such as immigration and judges would help Republicans keep the Senate. He was right about that, although Democratic Senate candidates got millions more votes than Republican candidates, and House Democratic candidates received a bigger majority of the two-party vote than either party has received since 2008. So the public spoke: Trump and Republicans are unpopular, but the American system, which gives each state two senators, benefits the smaller, more conservative states where Trump is popular.
Q: A survey released on the eve of the election shows that a quarter of Americans have lost friends over political disagreements and are less likely to attend social functions because of politics. What does it tell about the political environment in today’s American society?
A: It is toxic. I stayed off Twitter for much of the past week because there were too many angry people spending their time insulting each other. Social discourse in America is making people angry, depressed and divided. I hope that changes, but I’m not sure where the change will start.
Q: Why are we seeing more far-right activists using violence to express their political views, from the pipe bombs sent to prominent Democratic figures to the shooting at a Jewish synagogue in Pittsburgh that killed 11 people?
A: Far-right activists feel empowered and emboldened by Trump’s rhetoric and his successes. Trump is not responsible for crazed people who commit violent acts, but he does bear some responsibility for the lack of civility in public discourse and a failure to repudiate racial and religious hatred.
Q: Will the election result in any way influence the Trump administration’s trade policies?
A: I am an eternal optimist, and I think there’s a chance that Trump will try to cool down the rhetoric and try to find a negotiated settlement to the trade dispute with China. Election Day polling of voters found that only 25 percent of them believe that Trump’s trade policies are good for the American economy.
But it is also possible that, having declared victory, he will feel emboldened to continue to challenge traditional allies such as the EU and NATO, and get tough with China and even Russia, as we saw recently when he pulled out of the nuclear arms treaty.
Bloomberg Editor John Liu tells GBJ commencement that quality journalism, technological advances offer optimism to battered media industryPosted: July 9, 2018
Rapid advances in Artificial Intelligence technology give journalists “great reason to be optimistic about the future” of an industry that has struggled with declining audiences and revenues for the past decade, John Liu, Bloomberg News Executive Editor for Greater China, told 2018 Global Business Journalism Program graduates at the annual commencement ceremony on June 5.
Innovative media outlets such as Bloomberg News and The New York Times have harnessed the power of AI to improve the quality of their data analysis and to increase audience engagement by offering digital news stories of particular interest to each news consumer.
“Things are starting to get better know, because people are discovering that consumers are willing to pay for good content,” Liu said in an address at the Tsinghua School of Journalism and Communication. “The next big step, we believe, is AI telling you what you want to read, what you want to watch, before you know it’s there, even translating it into the language you want to read,” he said.
Sixteen international students were awarded master’s degrees in Global Business Journalism in a 90-minute ceremony, while 19 Chinese students received master’s certificates in addition to their master’s degrees from the Tsinghua School of Journalism and Communication.
Students from 65 nations and regions have participated in the Global Business Journalism Program since its creation in 2007. This year, Icigumije Brice became the first GBJ graduate from the African nation of Burundi.
Dr. Hang Min, GBJ Co-Director and TSJC Associate Dean for International Affairs, said that at a time of “dramatic change in China and beyond” that it is important for young journalists to have “multiple perspectives” and to offer “constructive solutions and not just destructive criticisms.”
“Stay open,” she urged the graduates. “Never close any window of opportunity and never say no to something because it’s not your planned path.”
GBJ Co-Director Rick Dunham told the students and their families that the media industry needs to do more to boost the careers of women.
“In the GBJ program, about three-fourths of our students are women, and with rare exceptions, women are the top performers in our program. Yet many of these high achievers may face obstacles in the job market. Women suffer discrimination, overt and hidden, in hiring, promotion and pay,” he said. “We must overcome these insidious forms of male discrimination. In the words of the American civil rights anthem of the 1960s, ‘we shall overcome, some day.’”
Professor Dunham noted that TSJC “is leading the way in empowering women,” and Liu noted that five of the six GBJ grads hired by Bloomberg have been women.
“Not only is advancing women in the workplace the right thing to do, it is also good business,” he said.
Top GBJ students also offered their perspectives on the program. Speaking for the Chinese graduates, Zhu Yuxuan, hailed GBJ as “a great program for us to develop a global vision … while we are gaining professional knowledge.” International student Zhu Yuxuan, of Japan said GBJ “has allowed me to broaden my horizons and meet friends from all over the world.”
“Every day, we met talented and outstanding students from all over the world, and had the chance to interact with local Chinese students,” she said. “All of us played together, learned together, and progressed together over these two years, and I’m sure every one of us emerged as a better person than we were two years ago.”
Sarah Talaat of the United States, chosen as the GBJ speaker at the TSJC ceremony later in the day, said GBJ students were not only taught practical journalism skills, but also “how to pursue a career grounded in truth and patience, brought about by hard work and dedication, and held to the highest standards of our chosen fields.” She predicted that the program’s sponsors “will see a return on your investments in the shape of better journalism and communication for the benefit of the world.”
Speaking for GBJ graduates was Grace Shao of Canada from the Class of 2015, who worked at CGTN for two years and is returning to academia this fall to study data journalism at Columbia University in New York. Shao, who covered top global economic issues and developments in Korea during her time at CGTN, urged graduates to “undersell yourself” and take care of their health.
“This industry isn’t for the meek,” she said. We have to be on our toes at all times; you have to have writing skills, multimedia skills, analytical skills, people skills, presentation skills, and so on, I can’t think of a job that demands a more well-rounded candidate. Believe in your talents and all that you’ve learned here from your Tsinghua professors!”
Top TSJC officials taking part in the ceremony included Executive Dean Chen Changfeng, Administrative Dean Hu Yu and Administrative Dean of Research Shi Anbin. Professor Zeng Fanxu was honored as top academic supervisor. Graduating students Li Chengzhang, Shi Lin, Quan Yue, Yuki Nakajima and Linda Lew received special awards for their contribution to the GBJ program.
Here is the complete text of my commencement address to the Global Business Journalism graduation ceremony at Tsinghua University on July 5, 2018.
大家好。Добрый день. Welcome.
I am honored, on behalf of the International Center for Journalists and the international faculty of the Global Business Journalism Program, to congratulate all of you on your successful completion of your studies.
This special group includes some of the best young journalists in China, along with a diverse mixture of nations: Japan, Russia, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Pakistan, Burundi, Azerbaijan, New Zealand, and the United States. Some of you already have made a mark on the world of business journalism during your Tsinghua years. I have great confidence that even more of you will have an impact in the years to come.
Since 2007, the Global Business Journalism program has improved the quality of journalism – and public understanding of business and economic issues – in China and around the world. You have benefited from cross-cultural learning, practical journalism training, and a varied curriculum featuring both Chinese and international professors at one of the world’s great universities.
In the GBJ program, about three-fourths of our students are women, and with rare exceptions, women are the top performers in our program. Yet many of these high achievers may face obstacles in the job market. Women suffer discrimination, overt and hidden, in hiring, promotion and pay. In many countries, it is acceptable to deny jobs or promotions to women because the employer fears they will become wives and mothers, and will not be as committed to their day jobs as men.
Subtle forms of discrimination continue to subvert women’s empowerment even in so-called progressive countries. A recent study of Twitter use by American political reporters found that of the 25 reporters who received the most social media replies from male political reporters in the United States, zero were women. And whose posts did male reporters share? Only three of the 25 most frequently shared reporters were women. It’s no surprise that the vast majority of “experts” quoted by male reporters tend to be male. It’s time for change.
Joyce Barnathan, president of the International Center for Journalists, was one of 10 prominent media leaders who last month proposed 14 steps to combat industry sexism. “It’s time to stop talking about the need for equality and start actively reforming the industry,” Joyce and the other leaders wrote.
We must overcome these insidious forms of male discrimination. In the words of the American civil rights anthem of the 1960s, “we shall overcome, some day.”
But a feminist author, Betty Millard, was unimpressed by the title, “Man Against Myth,” and produced her own tract in response: “Woman Against Myth.” She decried the cultural and religious customs cited to subjugate women around the world.
As Millard noted, Confucius wrote many centuries ago: “It is a law of nature that women should be kept under the control of men and not allowed any will of their own.” Confucius, without doubt, was a great man. But he was not always right.
Sadly, Millard’s analysis is still relevant today. A GBJ student, in his thesis this year, argued that Islamic feminists believe that “women’s struggle for equality with men is doomed to fail, as women are placed in ‘unnatural settings’ where they are denigrated and burdened with paid work on top of domestic labor.”
I believe in academic freedom, but I do not agree with the sentiments expressed in this quotation.
Fortunately, the Tsinghua School of Journalism and Communication is leading the way in empowering women. Our executive dean, Dr. Chen Changfeng, is a brilliant scholar and inspirational leader. Our associate dean for international affairs, my friend and GBJ co-director Dr. Hang Min, has earned a global reputation for media management and cross-cultural partnerships. Doctors Fan Hong and Dai Jia are popular GBJ professors, and Li Laoshi, Rose Li, is our indispensable international administrator. And more than half of the keynote speakers at our annual Tsinghua Business Journalism Forums have been women.
You see, women can achieve, if given the opportunity and freed of institutional and societal constraints. I hope that all of you in the graduating class of 2018 take inspiration from the accomplishments of your professors and your peers. It is sometimes harder for women to succeed in journalism. That’s the reality. Men still run most news organizations, and men make most of the hiring decisions. But through persistence and sheer excellence, women are gaining ground. I hope to live long enough to see some of you lead the journalistic, economic and even political worlds of the 21st century.
I close by quoting my favorite philosopher, my grandfather, Barrows Dunham. During a lecture in Massachusetts, he expressed optimism about the battle for social progress. “Even now,” he said, “we ourselves are determining the future, not by knowing what it will be, but by conceiving of what it can be.”
I look forward to you determining the future and changing our world. I will cherish your future achievements, unfettered by ancient superstitions and prejudices. Please stay in touch.
谢谢, 大家。Большое спасибо. Thank you.
Come join us! Global Business Journalism students offer tips on navigating the Tsinghua application processPosted: January 10, 2018
Come join us!
Global Business Journalism Program student journalist Botlhe Dikobe of Botswana produced this engaging video to celebrate the completion of her first semester in the Global Business Journalism Program. It has tips from current students on how to apply for our English-language master’s program at Tsinghua University, and what’s in store for you if you’re accepted.
Remember, our program is a partnership between the International Center for Journalists, the pre-eminent journalism training organization in the world, Bloomberg News, the most respected source of business news and data, and Tsinghua University, China’s top university.
Please share this with your family and friends as we build our community and seek more great applicants for the 2018-19 academic year. The deadline for early admission applications is January 15. The final deadline is March 1. An earlier application improves your chances of receiving a scholarship.
For more information on the program: https://rickdunhamblog.com/2017/11/20/apply-now-for-the-global-business-journalism-program-tsinghua-university/
Video: Why the GBJ program is a great choice for a master’s program: https://rickdunhamblog.com/2017/01/18/video-why-the-global-business-journalism-program-at-tsinghua-is-a-great-choice-for-graduate-school/comment-page-1/#comment-2301
Apply here: http://gradadmission.tsinghua.edu.cn
The Global Business Journalism master’s program at Tsinghua University is made up of a diverse group of students from around the world. Students from more than 60 nations have learned from GBJ’s experienced international journalists and eminent Chinese scholars over the past decade.
GBJ student Narantungalag Enkhtur, a former Bloomberg TV Mongolia reporter, produced a video that allows you to meet current students from Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia and America and hear them explain what that they are learning in this world-class program at China’s top university.
GBJ was created in 2007 by Tsinghua and the International Center for Journalists, a Washington-based nonprofit organization that is committed to journalism excellence and training around the world. Bloomberg News is the program’s chief sponsor.
The first round of applications for September 2018 admission is open until January 15, 2018. The second round of applications runs from January 16, 2018 to March 1, 2018. An earlier application improves your chances of receiving a scholarship.
For more information on the program: https://rickdunhamblog.com/2017/11/20/apply-now-for-the-global-business-journalism-program-tsinghua-university/
Apply here: http://gradadmission.tsinghua.edu.cn
As a regular analyst of American politics, policy and economics, I am often asked to explain Donald Trump to global audiences. Here is my Fourth of July segment on World Insight with Tian Wei:
— World Insight (@worldinsightTW) July 5, 2017