Rick Dunham’s 2026 Election Night cheat sheet

Posted: November 2, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: U.S. politics | Tags: , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

I have been crafting Election Night cheat sheets since 2000, when the presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush began unfolding at 6 p.m. and wasn’t finally decided until mid-December. Here is my latest installment in the series, analyzing the key bellwether contests that could decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term. Enjoy!

Dem donkey and GOP elephant clash before Capitol; “BATTLE FOR CONGRESS”
Illustration designed by Rick Dunham, executed by Jetpack Editor

OVERVIEW

Election Day: Tuesday, November 3 • All times Eastern Standard Time (EST)

House: 435 seats; 218 normally needed for a majority if all seats are filled. Senate: Republicans entered the cycle with 53 seats to Democrats’ 47 (including independents caucusing with Democrats); Democrats need a net gain of four for control.

THE BIG QUESTION: How many districts outside the conventional battleground list become competitive? A nationwide House vote margin is not the same as a seat margin. Geographic concentration, redistricting, candidate quality and close-race outcomes matter.

LIKELIEST OUTCOMES — FILL IN AFTER FINAL FORECAST REVIEW

Contained Democratic gainThe parties divide the competitive seats; House control remains close, with Democrats most likely to win a narrow majority. Republicans hold the Senate.
Expanding Democratic waveDemocrats win most toss-ups and reach Republican-leaning districts; Democratic Senate control is plausible.
Exceptional Democratic waveUnexpected Republican seats fall in multiple regions; Democrats easily win Senate control
Republican riptideRepublicans outperform expectations in close districts, potentially retaining the House and Senate.

ELECTION KEYS: WHAT TO WATCH

Demographics: college-educated suburban voters; non-college voters; young men and women; young Black and Hispanic men; Latino working-class communities; Mexican-Americans along the southern border; Black turnout in the South, Ohio and Michigan; independents; older voters; union households.

Geography: Virginia exurbs; Atlanta and Charlotte suburbs; Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley and northeastern counties; Pennsylvania’s Pennsylvania Dutch area in the southeast; Michigan industrial areas; Michigan’s suburbs of Detroit and Grand Rapids; New York and New Jersey suburbs; Texas border communities; Texas’ suburbs of Fort Worth (Tarrant County), Dallas, and Houston; Texas’ exurbs of Austin and San Antonio; California competitive districts.

Issues: prices and purchasing power; presidential approval; corruption and democracy; corporate wealth and income inequality; immigration; war and Trump foreign policy; abortion; healthcare; government competence; trade and tariffs. Measure issue importance separately from which party voters trust.

Early exit poll question results (potentially available from 6 p.m.): issue priorities, direction of country, presidential approval, personal economic circumstances, corruption. Initial figures may change and are not vote projections.

INDICATIONS OF AN EXPANDING DEMOCRATIC WAVE

Democrats win Republican-held seats beyond the toss-up column; Republican margins narrow in traditionally safe territory; Democratic gains appear in several regions rather than only affluent suburbs; Republican Senate incumbents struggle in multiple states.

INDICATIONS OF A REPUBLICAN RIPTIDE

Republicans hold suburban toss-ups, retain expected Republican Senate seats, and overperform in working-class or rural counties; Democratic gains remain concentrated in districts they already dominate.

POLL CLOSING TIMES — EST

Some states have staggered closings. A closing time does not mean a race can immediately be projected. New Hampshire local closings vary. Check state election offices for last-minute orders.

6:00 p.m.Indiana and Kentucky (Eastern portions)
7:00 p.m.Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia; most Florida; remaining Indiana/Kentucky; some New Hampshire
7:30 p.m.North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8:00 p.m.Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee; portions of Florida, Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas; remaining New Hampshire
8:30 p.m.Arkansas
9:00 p.m.Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming; portions of Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas
10:00 p.m.Montana, Nevada, Utah; portions of Idaho and Oregon
11:00 p.m.California, Washington; remaining Idaho and Oregon
MidnightHawaii; most of Alaska
1:00 a.m. WednesdayWestern Aleutian Islands, Alaska

KEY EARLY RACES TO WATCH — SENATE

SENATE MATH: Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Every Republican pickup in a Democratic-held seat increases the number of Republican-held seats Democrats must flip.

7:00 — GeorgiaOssoff (D): gauge whether Republican challenge breaks through; victory by more than 5 percentage points is good news for Democrats. Cook: Likely D.
7:00 — South CarolinaGraham (R): Appointed senator Darline Graham is at risk of losing the seat long held by her late brother Lindsey after running a terrible campaign. A narrow win means Republicans have a shot at holding the Senate. A Democratic victory is an early indicator of a GOP meltdown. Cook: Lean R.
7:30 — North CarolinaOpen Republican seat: key Democratic pickup opportunity; Roy Cooper victory by more than 8 points is an early sign of strong Democratic tide. Cook: Likely D.
7:30 — OhioHusted (R): important Republican-held toss-up. Warning: Early Ohio vote counts often favor Democrats, so examine which counties and ballot types have reported before drawing conclusions. A Sherrod Brown victory is essential to Democratic Senate control. Cook: Toss-up.
8:00 — New HampshireOpen Democratic seat; rare Republican pickup opportunity. An upset victory by Republican Sununu would be a sign of a contained Democratic wave. Cook: Lean D.
8:00 — MaineCollins (R): Republican-held toss-up. Collins is trailing in most polls but has defied predictions of defeat in the past. A clear Jackson victory would be a strong sign of a Democratic wave. Cook: Toss-up.
8:00 — MississippiHyde-Smith (R): Weak GOP incumbent has seen her lead slipping in polls. A close election means a Democratic trend nationally; a Democratic victory in a solidly Republican state is a harbinger of massive gains. Cook: Likely R.
9:00 — MichiganOpen Democratic seat: critical Democratic defense; Republican Mike Rogers is the only candidate in position to win a Democratic seat. Warning: Early counts can be misleading in Michigan; examine reporting jurisdictions and ballot types. Cook: Toss-up.
9:00 — TexasOpen Republican seat: test of the wave’s geographic reach; Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988. A James Talarico victory would be a sign of a Democratic wave. Cook: Toss-up.
9:00 — IowaOpen Republican seat: Democrat Josh Turek versus Republican Ashley Hinson. Cook: Toss-up.
9:00 — KansasMarshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D): Momentum has been with the Democrats in a state that last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1932 (George McGill). Another test of a national wave. Cook: Toss-up.
9:00 — NebraskaRicketts (R): Independent Dan Osborn has remained remarkably competitive against a strong Republican incumbent. Pete Ricketts’ defeat would confirm the trend of massive Republican losses. Cook: Lean R.
1:00 a.m. Wed. — AlaskaSullivan (R) versus Mary Peltola (D): A Republican-held toss-up whose late returns could help determine Senate control if the national Democratic wave is modest. Most Alaska polls close at midnight EST, with the western Aleutians at 1 a.m. This is the opposite of an early indicator. Final results may take days. Cook: Toss-up.