Day 1 Analysis: What else could go wrong for Trump? (We have 3 days to find out)
Posted: July 19, 2016 Filed under: U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, American politics, Cleveland, David Frum, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Hubert Humphrey, Jodi Ernst, Linda Lingle, Mayor Daley, Melania Trump, Michelle Obama, MSNBC, Paul Manafort, plagiarism, Reince Preibus, Republican National Committee, Republican National Convention, Republican Party, Rob Portman, Rudy Giuliani, Steve King 1 Comment
Empty seats during Senator Joni Ernst’s speech.
A national presidential nominating convention is supposed to help the party’s candidate win the general election.
Since I started watching political conventions in 1968 (and attending at least one each campaign since 1976), there have been only two exceptions: the 1968 Democratic disaster in Chicago, and the 1972 Democratic chaos-fest in Miami.
After one day, I’m prepared to say that the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland could join this short and ignominious list.
Day One of the GOP convention did nothing to help Donald Trump appeal to undecided voters. It did nothing to reassure wavering Republicans or independents who dislike both GOP nominee-to-be Donald Trump and Democratic nominee-in-waiting Hillary Clinton.
And that was before the plagiarism thing.
From the early morning, the Trump campaign seemed to be trying its best to sabotage its stated Day One message of national security. At a breakfast meeting with reporters, its campaign chief picked an unnecessary fight with Ohio Gov. John Kasich by insulting the popular governor of a state he needs to win to have any plausible shot at an Electoral College majority. Paul Manafort’s unforced error drew a fast and furious rebuke from the Ohio Republican Party chair. Suffice it to say that Ohio Republicans will concentrate their efforts and passions on re-electing endangered incumbent Sen. Rob Portman now, rather than the presidential race.

It was “Make America Safe Again” night. Do you think it was effective?
Later in the morning, in an episode I missed until it was pointed out on Twitter by ex-Bush speechwriter David Frum, Team Trump forced the GOP to tear up its platform to excise a section that might ruffle the feathers of one Vladimir Putin. Kowtowing to the Russian leader is not exactly the image of strong American leadership. Hard-core Trumpistas won’t care, but undecided voters won’t be impressed.
To further alienate Jewish voters, the Republican National Committee had to shut down a convention live chat during a speech by former Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle (who happens to be Jewish) when it was bombarded by pro-Trump, pro-Hitler, profanely anti-Jewish ranters, according to a report in the Times of Israel.
And then there was a white supremacist riff from Iowa Congressman Steve King, who belittled all contributions to global civilization from non-white, non-Christian humans. “Where did any other subgroup of people contribute more to civilization?” he asked on MSNBC, setting off a hourlong tweet storm in the Twitterverse.
Before the prime-time speeches, Republicans had a Democrat-like rumble over convention rules. It reminded me a little of Chicago 1968, when Mayor Daley had the microphones turned off on anti-war, anti-Humphrey delegations. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus’ team played hardball to prevent an actual recorded vote that would have shown the world the level of dissatisfaction with Trump among convention delegates.
You have to divide the evening session into three parts: pre-Melania, Melania and after Melania.
Pre-Melania was red-meat rhetoric for Trump Lovers and Hillary Haters. Also birthers. One speaker said Obama was certainly a Muslim. Several called for throwing Clinton in jail. Rudy Giuliani is passionate, and he hates Hillary Clinton, but there’s nothing he said that would convince wavering voters why they should vote for Trump. Indeed, I didn’t hear a single Trump policy initiative from any speaker.
Post-Melania was a sleeping pill for America. Rising star Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa was pushed out of prime time by a rambling, never-ending speech by an obscure military guy named Flynn. Don’t think this will launch a speaking career for him. And Ernst, speaking to a mostly empty auditorium, gave her normal stump speech, evoking the parallel political worlds Republicans live in. Just watching the early lines to the exits, you can see that this is not a Republican national convention, it is the Trump national convention. Many Trump delegates don’t care about Republican rising stars. Only Trump.
Finally, Melania, the most important speaker of the night. I liked the speech. It was well-written. It was human. It was plagiarized.
The part about honesty.
Oops.
To all the Trump backers who tweeted that Melania will bring class back to the White House after eight years of Michelle Obama, all I can say is … I don’t really have anything to say.
I had forgotten that Mrs. Obama said many of the same words in a similar introduction-to-the-nation speech eight years ago. In the afternoon, Mrs. Trump boasted in an interview that she had written almost all of her speech. By the end of the evening, Team Trump released a curious statement citing a “team” of speechwriters.
As the aforementioned Hubert H. Humphrey once remarked, “To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.”
Day Two. What else could go wrong?
I will be analyzing the convention on CCTV’s World Insight program at 10:15 a.m. EDT/9:15 EDT on Tuesday. Tune in for a live discussion.
Who are the undecided voters in 2016? Mormon women, wealthy Latinos, Midwestern white women
Posted: July 7, 2016 Filed under: Dunham's Discourses, The Index, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, American politics, Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Republican Party, Undecided voters Leave a commentWelcome to the third installment of The Index, a series of posts analyzing the latest polling data through the lens of 100 micro-targeted demographic groups. Today, we look at the voters who can’t make up their minds.
The presidential campaign polling has been remarkable stable over the past month — despite temporary blips — but the number of voters who are not supporting either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump remains historically high for the summer before a presidential election.
On June 5, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in Reuters Polling, 40.9 percent to 30.9 percent — a margin of 10 percentage points.
On July 5, Clinton led the presumptive Republican nominee by 40.2 percent to 30.0 percent — a margin of 10.2 percentage points.
Both candidates declined a little over the month. Trump slipped a bit more than his Democratic rival. In some ways, the minuscule decline is good news for Trump. He had a horrendous month in “free media”: Jewish stars and white supremacist message boards; a quick trip to Scotland; a vice presidential search (and rescue) mission; more praise for Saddam Hussein’s murderous efficiency; and more former Reagan and Bush (41 + 43) officials endorsing Democrat Clinton. The controversies dinged Trump temporarily, but each time he seemed to bounce back to his core support, 10 points behind Clinton’s core.
Clinton also weathered a media storm over her email server and the final report of the Republican Benghazi committee. But the clouds over her candidacy are hindering her from pulling away from the most unpopular Republican presidential candidate since the invention of scientific polling.
Amid the two candidates’ troubles, the number of undecided voters — already higher than at comparable times in recent election cycles — continued to grow. These are the people who tell Reuters they support another candidate, favor “none of the above,” plan to stay home on Election Day, or refuse to answer the question. This “other” category ticked up from 28.2 percent to 29.8 percent — within the poll’s margin of error, but still the only number that has gone up since early June.
To get from 30 percent to 50 percent, Trump has to win about two-thirds of these up-for-grabs voters. So let’s look at our 34 “battleground” voting groups and see which of these blocs has the most undecided voters. You can decide for yourself if Trump is likely to win two-thirds of them.
Battleground groups with highest share in the “other” column:
- Mormon women 54% (Clinton leads by 4 points*)
- Latinos earning $100,000 a year and more 39% (Clinton leads by 41 points)
- Midwestern white women 39% (Trump leads by 7)
- Lean conservative 38% (Clinton leads by 4 points)
- Great Lakes states voters 35% (Clinton leads by 6 points)
- All women 33.7% (Clinton leads by 7 points)
- White men under age 30 32% (Clinton leads by 4 points)
- Midwestern voters 31.8% (Clinton leads by 6.5 points)
- White voters under 40 31.1% (Clinton leads by 24.9 points)
- Single whites (never married) 30.9% (Clinton leads by 19)
Analysis: Mormon women can’t decide between two unpalatable choices. Trump has the support of only 10 percent of America’s wealthiest Latinos, but 39 percent still are not committed to either major-party candidate. Midwestern voters are the most volatile, with Midwestern women resisting Clinton but not fully embracing Trump. White men under 30 — the Bernie Sanders demographic — still have not moved to Clinton. But they haven’t gone to Trump, either.
Bottom line: More upside for Clinton among these voters, if she can close the deal. Trump can do very little to win many of these voters. They are there for Clinton to win or lose.
Now here are the battleground groups with lowest share in the “other” column:
- White Catholic men 13% (Clinton leads by 13 points)
- Whites earning between $75K and $100K 18% (Clinton leads by 18 points)
- Southern white men with college degree 20% (Clinton leads by 2 points)
- All men 20.7% (Clinton leads by 8.9 points)
- Voters earning $75K+ 22.2% (Clinton leads by 20.4 points)
Analysis: Men are more likely to have made up their minds already. And Clinton is doing surprisingly well among some unlikely blocs including Southern white men with college degrees and white Catholic men. If she were doing as well among white Catholic women as among men, she would have clinched the battleground states of the industrial heartland. Trump has lost upper-middle-class voters of all races and genders, and he’s losing college-educated voters, even in the South.
Bottom line: Most swing voters who’ve made up their minds have chosen Clinton.
While the overall “horserace” numbers haven’t changed in the past month, some of my 100 key demographic subgroups have shown movement. Here are some examples:

Trump has cratered among white voters under the age of 40. But 31.1 percent of them are in the “other” category.

While young whites despise Trump, white Baby Boomers are keeping Trump in the race with a double-digit edge over Clinton.

Clinton has opened up a big lead among upper-middle-class whites, voters with family incomes of between $75,000 and $100,000.

Trump has pulled ahead among divorced white people.
Previous posts:
>>>A look at 100 key demographic blocs, and how Trump and Clinton are faring among them
Methodology:
The Index analyzes the 2016 presidential election through the voting preferences of 100 different demographic blocs. Thirty-three of them are part of Donald Trump’s Republican base. Thirty-three of them are part of Hillary Clinton’s Democratic base. And 34 of them are battleground groups — keys to both candidates’ paths to the White House.
The information for the feature comes from Reuters’ polling data, which is available, open source, on the internet. I am using Reuters’ rolling five-day averages for most of my analysis. I chose Reuters’ numbers because the poll is respected, but, most of all, because the global news service makes the information available to anyone. You can check behind me to examine my methodology — or to create new searches of your own.
One small asterisk (*): Certain subgroups are too small to have a statistically significant counts on the five-day average. In the cases marked with an asterisk (*), I have included data for these groups from the past 30 days of polling. One warning: Subgroups are, by definition, smaller than the entire survey, so they have a larger margin of error and more volatility from survey to survey.
A look at 100 key demographic blocs, and how Trump and Clinton are faring among them
Posted: June 27, 2016 Filed under: The Index, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Republican Party, Reuters, U.S. politics 8 CommentsPolls, polls, polls. Every day, it seems there is a new poll. She’s up. She’s down. He’s up. He’s really down.
What does it mean?
To many media outlets, polls are cheap click bait to drive web traffic. To cable news networks, they are the score in the latest inning of an endless political baseball game. There are some smart polling analysts, but most stories about polls are politically shallow and journalistically useless.
As a political reporter who has covered every presidential race since 1980, I hope I can offer you a respite from pedestrian polling analysis. Welcome to “The Index,” a new analytical feature that will run periodically through Election Day 2016. I hope I can bring you something new, different and interesting.
Here’s my angle: I will analyze the 2016 presidential election through the voting preferences of 100 different demographic blocs. Thirty-three of them are part of Donald Trump’s Republican base. Thirty-three of them are part of Hillary Clinton’s Democratic base. And 34 of them are battleground groups — keys to both candidates’ paths to the White House.
A few of the groups are the basic demographic groups you are accustomed to hearing about: Republicans and Democrats, very liberal and very conservative voters, African Americans and born-again whites. I included these as tests of the loyalty of core voting groups for each party.
But I’m also looking at some groups you don’t read much about, the kinds of groups that will tip you off about the way the election is going. Among them: Latinos making more than $100,000 a year, white men under age 30, families with active duty military or veterans, white southerners with college degrees, homeowners, moms with kids at home, Midwestern white men, white Catholic women, even Mormon women.
I’ll analyze the different support levels of Latino voters in the Southeastern United States (where Cubans have some influence in Florida), the Southwest (from Texas to Arizona), and the Pacific coast. Differing levels of support in each region could be a tipoff as to whether states like Arizona or Georgia are in play, or whether Trump has any chance in Florida or New Mexico.
In each update, I will describe which candidate is leading among each group, and you can easily see how much better or worse than the national norm that is. The reason is simple: As the “horserace” changes from week to week, a key is whether a certain voting bloc is skewing more heavily toward Clinton or Trump. Clinton currently leads every recent national poll, but if the race ends up close, that variation from the norm will be important.
The information for the feature comes from Reuters’ polling data, which is available, open source, on the internet. I am using Reuters’ rolling five-day averages for most of my analysis. I chose Reuters’ numbers because the poll is respected, but, most of all, because the global news service makes the information available to anyone. You can check behind me to examine my methodology — or to create new searches of your own.
One small asterisk (*): Certain subgroups are too small to have a statistically significant counts on the five-day average. In the cases marked with an asterisk (*), I have included data for these groups from the past 30 days of polling. One warning: Subgroups are, by definition, smaller than the entire survey, so they have a larger margin of error and more volatility from survey to survey.
With no further introduction, here is the first set of data:
Overall (6/20-24)
Clinton 40.3%, Trump 31.3%
Clinton +9
Note: (C) means that Clinton leads by more than the 9 point national difference. (T) means that her lead with the group is less than her national lead.
Battleground groups
- Latinos earning >$100K Clinton +24* (C)
- White Catholic men Clinton +11 (C)
- Great Plains states Clinton+11 (C)
- Voters earning $75K+ Clinton +11.1 (C)
- White men under 30 Clinton +10 (C)
- Men Clinton +9.7 (C)
- Families with active duty military or veteran Clinton +9.6* (C)
- Active duty military Clinton +9.4* (C)
- Voters earning between $50K-100K Clinton +9.3 (C)
- Midwestern white men Clinton +9
- Women Clinton +8.7 (T)
- Whites earning >$150K Clinton +8 (T)
- Unmarried white women Clinton +7.9 (T)
- White single, never married Clinton +6 (T)
- White divorced Clinton +6 (T)
- Whites earning between $50-75K Clinton +5 (T)
- Midwest Clinton +4.9 (T)
- Great Lakes Clinton +3 (T)
- White Catholic Clinton +3 (T)
- White women, no children at home Clinton +2.8 (T)
- Whites earning between $50-$100K Clinton 2.7 (T)
- Whites under age 40 Clinton +1.2 (T)
- Homeowners Clinton +1.9 (T)
- Whites earning between $75K-$100K Clinton +1 (T)
- White southern women with college degree Clinton +0.4* (T)
- Independent Tie (T)
- Married voters Trump +1 (T)
- White southerners with college degree Trump +2.1* (T)
- Southern white men with college degree Trump +3.9* (T)
- Whites 50-65 Trump +4 (T)
- Lean conservative Trump +4 (T)
- Midwestern white women Trump +5 (T)
- White Catholic women Trump +5 (T)
- Mormon women Trump +8* (T)
Trump base
- Voted for Romney Trump +67.6 (T)
- Republicans Trump +52.4 (T)
- Very conservative voters Trump +45 (T)
- Moderately conservative whites Trump +35 (T)
- White born-again men Trump +35 (T)
- Southern white men Trump +33 (T)
- White born-again voters Trump +32.7 (T)
- White Tea Partiers Trump +30.5 (T)
- White born-again women Trump +30 (T)
- Whites who attend church at least once a week Trump +26 (T)
- Southern white women without college degree Trump +26 (T)
- Midwestern men without college degree Trump +26 (T)
- White women, children at home Trump +17 (T)
- Southern white men without college degree Trump +15 (T)
- White non-college grads Trump +14.3 (T)
- Southern white women Trump +13 (T)
- Whites 65+ Trump +13 (T)
- Mormons Trump +13* (T)
- White independents who voted for Romney Trump +13 (T)
- White Catholic over 40 Trump +12 (T)
- White married voters Trump +10.6 (T)
- Whites $100K-$150K Trump +9 (T)
- Southeast Trump +8.6 (T)
- South Trump +8.2 (T)
- Southwest Trump +7 (T)
- Whites 50+ Trump +6.9 (T)
- White voters Trump +6.4 (T)
- Veterans Trump +5.7* (T)
- White, children at home Trump +5.2 (T)
- White non-college grads earning <$50K Trump +5 (T)
- White voters earning less than $50K Trump +2.8 (T)
- Non-college grads Trump +0.1 (T)
- Rocky Mountain West Clinton +4 (T)
Clinton base
- African Americans who attend church at least once a week Clinton +71.6 (C)
- African Americans Clinton +70.6 (C)
- Voted for Obama Clinton +68.2 (C)
- Latino voters in West Clinton +60* (C)
- Very liberal voters Clinton +59.4 (C)
- Democrats Clinton +50.1 (C)
- Latino voters in Southwest Clinton +49* (C)
- Asian American voters Clinton +45 (C)
- Voters with advanced degrees Clinton +45 (C)
- Minority voters without college degrees Clinton +41 (C)
- White Catholic under 40 Clinton +35 (C)
- Students Clinton +33 (C)
- Voters with college degrees Clinton +32.2 (C)
- College graduates Clinton +32.2 (C)
- Latina voters Clinton +29.8* (C)
- LGBT voters Clinton +27 (C)
- Latino voters in Southeast Clinton +24* (C)
- Latino voters nationally Clinton +24* (C)
- Unmarried women Clinton +22.6 (C)
- White voters with college degree Clinton +21.1 (C)
- White men with college degree Clinton +21 (C)
- White women with college degree Clinton +20 (C)
- Voters who never attend religious services Clinton +19.3 (C)
- White students Clinton +19.5 (C)
- Southerners with college degree Clinton +19 (C)
- Latino men Clinton +18* (C)
- Voters under 40 Clinton +16.4 (C)
- Far West Clinton Clinton Clinton +16 (C)
- Mid-Atlantic Clinton +15 (C)
- Voters who attend religious services once a month or less Clinton +15 (C)
- New England Clinton +14 (C)
- Voters under 30 Clinton +13.9 (C)
- Women with no children at home Clinton +10.9 (C)
In the next few days, I will post some of the analytical highlights of this first data dump, explaining which subgroups’ results I think are the most important and surprising. I look forward to sharing the 2016 political roller coaster with you.
Explaining America to the world: I analyze Trump’s populist revolt for a Finnish audience
Posted: March 6, 2016 Filed under: Rick in the news, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, Aamulehti, American politics, Bernie Sanders, Big Business, Bill Clinton, China, Donald Trump, Europe, Finland, Franklin D. Roosevelt, George McGovern, Global Business Journalism, Hillary Clinton, Iran, Japan, Korea, Lannen Media, Matti Posio, Mexico, New Deal, Orson Welles, populism, reality TV, Republican Party, Ronald Reagan, Slovakia, Ted Cruz, Ulkomaat, United States, Vladimir Putin, Wall Street, Watergate, White House Correspondents' Association Dinner Leave a commentWhen I moved to Beijing in 2013 to explain global best practices in journalism to a diverse group of Global Business Journalism Program students, I had not expected that I also would frequently be asked to explain American politics and democracy to a global audience. I’ve been interviewed regularly in Chinese media, but also in European news outlets from Finland to Slovakia (plus the good old USA).
This week, I discussed the rise of Donald Trump with my friend Matti Posio, who heads up the national news operation for a group of Finnish newspapers, Lannen Media. Here’s a transcript of our conversation:
Q: You have met Donald Trump in person. Tell me about it.
I am one of thousands of people who has met Donald Trump at black-tie social events. For me, it was the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington several years ago. He was cordial and polite, very different than his public persona. He was clearly a celebrity among celebrities. Reporters were coming up to him an asking if they could pose for photos with him. He was patient, unlike the hot-tempered character on the campaign trail. Nobody I talked to thought he would ever run for president. I really didn’t do more than exchange small talk. He seems comfortable with social conversation and, obviously, he has been going to formal events for a half-century. From my very short glimpse into his life, I would say that he is a very good actor playing certain roles that are expected of him at different times.
Q: I don’t see how anyone can actually be like that. Is his personality the same in real life than portrayed on media?
How many of us get to see him in “real life”? Real life is his life in his big mansion in Florida. Real life is his family. I can imagine Orson Welles playing the role.

Cruz + Trump = Volatile mix
Q: What is it that foreigners / Europeans really don’t get about Trump?
Do you mean, “Why is he getting so many votes? Why would anyone vote for him for president?” Politically, he is the right man at a very strange time in American political history. After two decades of anti-elitist rhetoric on right-wing talk radio and the Rupert Murdoch-owned conservative cable news network Fox, there is a large minority of the country that believes their way of life has been taken from away from them by the faceless “them” — minorities, immigrants, big companies shipping jobs overseas, corrupt speculators, too-big-to-fail banks, gays and lesbians, working women, feminists, or Big Government giving their tax dollars to undeserving others, Donald Trump is a reality TV performer and is playing to that audience. He is playing the role of populist demagogue, race-baiter, keeper of the working-class flame, proud leader of the “poorly educated,” ranter against the system and the elites and Wall Street and Big Business. So what if he is a son of privilege, a highly educated billionaire and someone who has played the system for years to make deals and make money.
Q: What are the main reasons he has become so popular?
He strikes a responsive chord with less-educated, lower-income white voters across the political spectrum. He is winning among moderate Republicans, conservative Republicans and Evangelical Christians.. He is even getting a modest share of higher-educated, higher-income voters. He is bringing new voters into the system, economically struggling people who thought they had no voice until Donald Trump appeared. While Trump moved relentlessly forward in a media frenzy, his opponents spent months destroying each other rather than going after him. His opponents sound like traditional politicians — which they are — at a time American voters yearn for the myth of “authenticity.” Trump is acting the role of “truth-sayer” supremely well, even if the fact-checking web sites say he is lying much of the time.
- Talking multimedia innovation at Lannen Media’s Helsinki offices last March
Q: He is behind both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the real election. Could he still win?
When it is a one-on-one race, anything could happen. If there are independent candidates dividing the non-Trump vote, anything could happen. There has never been an election like this. Bill Clinton says he expects a close general election. Pundits, who have been wrong all year, are predicting a Trump defeat that costs Republicans control of the U.S. Senate. I’ve been predicting that the public will eventually tire of Trump and “cancel” his election-year reality TV show. But I’ve been wrong for months, along with my fellow political reporters and pundits. So, to repeat an American political cliche, never say never.
Q What would happen if he really became the president? How much would he change?
In recent days, his primary opponent rival Ted Cruz has claimed that Trump told the New York Times editorial board privately that he would act very differently as president than he has during the campaign, as least as far as immigration is concerned. None of us know. As a reporter, I’ve always said that the best way to judge what a politician will do after getting elected to office is to study what he or she promises during the campaign. We can’t read his mind. If he does everything he’s promising to do on the campaign trail, there will be a constitutional crisis and a global economic and diplomatic catastrophe. You’ll have the Putin-Trump axis versus the world. I can’t see it. He would have to change or he would be ineffective domestically and isolated internationally.
Q: Let’s assume he doesn’t become the president. Has he already achieved something, left a lasting mark in the country and its politics? What is it?

Dismantling the Reagan coalition
Yes, he has achieved something of historical significance. He has destroyed Ronald Reagan’s Republican Party. If he wins the nomination, the party of Reagan will have ceased to exist. It is the same thing that happened to the Democrats in 1972, when George McGovern won the presidential nomination and destroyed the four-decade-old New Deal coalition of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Although Democrats won the White House four years later because of Nixon’s Watergate scandal, it took them two decades to recover institutionally from the crack-up of 1972.
Q: You are currently a professor in China. What is told about Trump there? How much of it is true?
Trump has been portrayed in Chinese media as an eccentric, bombastic showman and celebrity. He’s seen more as a curiosity than a threat, so far, at least. Most people who are savvy about the United States ask me, “Could Trump be elected? Why would Americans vote for Trump?” It’s similar to questions people would ask you in Europe. The coverage of him on Chinese state television is generally straightforward, so far, at least. There has been a bit of negative editorial commentary in traditional state print media, but nothing nearly as inflammatory as what Trump has said about China. And Japan. And Korea. And Mexico. And Iran. And Europe. And Obama.
Q: Would you consider moving to China all together, should Trump be elected?
How about Finland?

Taping an interview at YLE, the Finnish radio network
What would Reagan do? Here’s what he said about immigration, walls and open borders
Posted: February 29, 2016 Filed under: U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, American politics, amnesty, Berlin Wall, Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush, immigration, Republican Party, Ronald Reagan 1 Comment
Reagan signed into law the bipartisan Simpson-Mazzoli Law that granted amnesty to millions of people living illegally in the United States.
Ronald Reagan was all about tearing down walls, as in Berlin.
But he also was against building them, as in Mexico.
With all of the heated political rhetoric about Mexico today, it’s a good time to revisit what presidential candidates Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush said about immigration as they debated each other during the 1980 campaign.
“Rather than talking about putting up a fence, why don’t we work out some recognition of our mutual concerns?” Reagan asked.
Bush tried to be even more pro-immigrant, noting at one point, “Part of my family is a Mexican.”
Listen for yourself. And ask yourself, “Would Ronald Reagan be welcome in today’s Trump-guided Republican Party?”
Ten terrible political journalism clichés — it’s a real game-changer
Posted: February 3, 2016 Filed under: Breaking news, Top Ten, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, Al Weaver, Alexandra Jaffe, American politics, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton, cable news, Cable TV, Chris Christie, CNN, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Iowa caucuses, Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, KFC, Marco Rubio, New Hampshire, Republican establishment, Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz, United States 2 Comments
Ted Cruz’s “lane” is marked “right turn only.”
The 2016 presidential candidates are criss-crossing New Hampshire as they enter the home stretch before the first-in-the-nation primary. Polls show the horse race is too close to call. With candidates running neck-and-neck, the air war is ferocious, but the ground game could be a game-changer. Only time will tell. This tight race is make-or-break for Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Jim Gilmore … well, all of them. It is the most important primary of 2016.
Until the next one in South Carolina.
Watching a presidential primary contest unfold from my living room (for the first time since 1972), I have been impressed by the legion of young reporters following the dozen-plus presidential candidates. (H/T Al Weaver and Alexandra Jaffe) But I also have been less-than-impressed by the cliché-littered coverage by many political reporting veterans and partisan pundits, particularly on cable television.
Here is a list of ten terrible clichés that I would ban from 2016 presidential stories … if I had the power of Donald Trump to shape news coverage.
- LANES. Enough of this garbage about “lanes.” There is no “Establishment lane,” “Evangelical lane,” “moderate lane,” “mainstream lane,” “Kasich lane,” “socialist lane” or “Penny Lane.” This is a really stupid rhetorical device. Average Americans don’t have any idea what you’re yammering about. Enough!
The Establishment “lane”? No such thing.
- SECRET WEAPONS. I’ve seen the story about Ted Cruz’s wife being his secret weapon. And the one about Bernie Sanders’ wife being his secret weapon. And Hillary Clinton’s husband being her secret weapon. That is one over-used cliché. Why are spouses “secret weapons”? They’re not secret. And they’re not weapons. Please retire this sexist, martial metaphor.
- NARRATIVE. As in “controlling the narrative.” Or a campaign’s “narrative.” “Narrative” is a means of storytelling. It is a big stretch to use it as a substitute for “setting the agenda.” To those of us who care about good writing, the word “narrative” is a valuable word that should not be devalued through misuse and overuse.
- -MENTUM. The reporter who talked about “Marco-mentum” this week thought he was being clever. No, sir. A name with the suffix “-mentum” is the new all-purpose cliché for momentum, and it’s not funny or clever. Maybe it was clever in 2004, when Democratic presidential candidate coined the term “Joe-mentum” for the (non-existent) momentum generated by his third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. In 2016, it’s become such a cliché that it has become a tongue-in-cheek hashtag mocking former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore’s Quixotic quest for the GOP nomination. (#Gilmentum).
- GAME CHANGER. If Joe-mentum is a 2004 cliché, “game changer” is a throwback to 2008, when the book (and subsequent movie) “Game Change” chronicled Sarah Palin’s impact on that year’s presidential race. Now it’s used for just about any plot twist in the presidential race. Pundits predict, with dubious reliability, that it may be a “game changer.” How many changes can there be in the game? This year, way too many.
- DOUBLE DOWN. The third and final golden-oldie that should be banned from all political coverage: the term “double down.” It seems to be used almost weekly when Donald Trump says something the media considers outrageous and then, rather than apologizing and backing down, he says it again and again and again. Perhaps it is appropriate that Trump, who has made and lost billions in the gambling biz, should be the subject of a gambling-related cliché. This once was a term defining an audacious and risky strategy, but “double down” is so overused that it has lost its journalistic impact, if it ever had any.
- RE-SET THE RACE. This is what happens when a losing candidate hopes to change the dynamics of a presidential contest. The week before the New Hampshire primary, we are hearing that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and other presidential candidates are trying to “re-set the race.” There is no need for a mechanical metaphor. Why not say that they’re hoping to remain viable?
Polls can be unreliable. The “Poll of Polls” concept is inherently unscientific and dubiously reliable.
- POLL OF POLLS. This concept is a methodologically fraudulent way that a news outlet can create artificial news by averaging a group of polls to develop its own “poll of polls.” News outlets in England used this technique — with disastrous journalistic consequences — during last year’s British parliamentary elections. CNN has resurrected its own “poll of polls” for the 2016 election. How accurate was the CNN Poll of Polls in Iowa? Not very.
- TOO CLOSE TO CALL. This is a legitimate analytical term that is misused by journalists who seek melodramatic effect. It is often used to describe poll results. It should never be used to describe poll results. Polls are not “too close to call.” Elections are only too close to call when, on election night, the margin is so small that the result cannot be predicted until more results are in. However, once 100 percent of the returns are in, and one candidate has won by 0.3 percentage points, the race is not too close to call. It is over, and one candidate has won. By a very tiny margin.
- BREAKING NEWS. This term should be banned on cable news, social media and press releases. News breaks once. It doesn’t break all night, after every commercial break, on television. A candidate dropping out of the race is breaking news. Once. When it happens. Scheduled events — like primary elections, caucuses and State of the Union speeches — are not breaking news. They are scheduled events. If you’re reporting that 16 percent of the precincts are reporting their results (instead of the previous 14 percent), it is not breaking news. It is an update.
This list of clichés is incomplete. Feel free to add your own contributions in the comments section below.
16 bold predictions for 2016 (including ‘Cruz schlongs Trump’)
Posted: December 26, 2015 Filed under: Breaking news, Top Ten, U.S. politics | Tags: 2016 presidential race, American politics, Austin, Beijing pollution, Bernie Sanders, Bibi Netanyahu, China, Chris Matthews, clickbait, CNN, Dan Snyder, Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Huffington Post, international trade, Iowa caucuses, Israel, Jerusalem, Joe Scarborough, Julian Castro, Larry David, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Mike Huckabee, Mo Udall, Morning Joe, MSNBC, National Football League, New York Daily News, New York Times, Newt Gingrich, NFL, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles, Pollution, protectionism, Pyonyang, Pyonyang Marathon, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Saturday Night Live, schlong, schlonged, Sears, Sheldon Adelson, Tea Party, Ted Cruz, trade, Washington Post, Washington Redskins, William Randolph Hearst 2 Comments
The bromance is headed for a rocky break-up in 2016.
The pundits were soooooo wrong in 2015 that it seems silly for anyone to pull out the crystal ball again. Especially in the midst of the most unpredictable Republican presidential nominating process in … what, four years? (President Gingrich, President Santorum, President Perry, we hardly knew ye.)
But since so many pundits make good salaries predicting things that don’t come true, I’m going to let you in on some things that are as solid as Sears. (OK, if you’re under 50 years old, you probably don’t understand that line.)
Here are my 16 bold predictions for 2016:
- The New York Daily News headline on Feb. 2, 2016 (the day after the Iowa caucuses): CRUZ SCHLONGS TRUMP
- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the winner of the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses, drops out of the 2016 race on Feb. 3 after finishing eighth in the previous evening’s Iowa caucuses. Nobody outside of the Huckabee family notices.
- Donald Trump continues his slide from frontrunner status on Feb. 23 with a stinging defeat in the Nevada caucuses when fellow gambling mogul Sheldon Adelson pulls out all the stops in support of [Editor’s note: He hasn’t yet decided which non-Trump candidate he will support]. Front page editorials in the Adelson family’s Las Vegas Review-Journal strongly support [candidate to be decided upon later]. Adelson tells close friends that Trump eliminated himself from contention when he didn’t know he was supposed to say that Jerusalem is and always will be the indivisible capital of Israel — and then canceled his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu in a fit of pique after Adelson buddy Bibi bashed Trump for saying he’d bar all non-citizen Muslims from the U.S. — and then used “schlong” as a verb.
Larry David got more attention from the mainstream media when he played Bernie Sanders on Saturday Night Live than the real candidate got when playing himself on the campaign trail.
- Bernie Sanders will be the Mo Udall of 2016. Without the wicked sense of humor. Favorite of the liberal liberals. String of second-place finishes. His last stand will be in the Vermont primary on March 1. But while Bernie battles for his home state’s 15 delegates chosen in the primary, Hillary Clinton will take something like 207 of the 208 Texas delegates up for grabs that day.
- The Republican Party in the United States will remain the only conservative party in the entire world to dispute the fact that humans contribute to climate change. Not a good strategy to win the support of young Americans, who wonder why so many old fogies can’t accept global scientific consensus.
Just saying no.
- The Democratic Party in the United States will continue to argue for protectionism and managed trade. The Tea Party will continue to argue for protectionism and managed trade. The rest of the world will wonder why America continues to have such a robust, resilient economy when its politicians seem to be trying so hard to destroy its competitiveness.
- America will make history again — by electing the first female president ever, the first candidate with a Spanish surname and/or the first U.S. president ever born in Canada.
- The next vice president’s last name will end in an “o.” Leading possibilities are Castro, Rubio or uh-oh.
- Ratings on MSNBC will continue to slip-slide toward oblivion. Morning Joe’s audience will be limited to the DC Beltway, Manhattan and Joe Scarborough’s family’s homes. More than 95 percent of Chris Matthews’ audience will be aged 65 and above.
- The Washington Post website, having passed the New York Times in online audience in 2015, will rocket ahead of CNN through a combination of good, solid, old-fashioned reporting and analysis and an understanding of viral-news marketing.
- The Huffington Post, having reached the limits of page views through click-bait, rewrites and journalistic trolling, reassesses its business strategy amid general stagnation.

“Mister Hearst, tear down that wall.”
12. American newspapers continue to reassess the ill-fated paywall fad amid mounting evidence that they are destroying any potential for long-term community-building in a misguided attempt to increase short-term revenues.
13. No pro team from Philadelphia or Austin will make the playoffs in any sport.
14. Dan Snyder will continue to top the lists of “worst sports team owner,” despite his mediocre team’s miraculous 2015 run in the NFC Least division.
15. The Pyongyang Marathon will continue to be the least popular marathon in any nation’s capital. It’s on April 10, if you’re interested in signing up.

Have you signed up yet? One-way airfare not included.
16. American newspapers and news networks will feature stories about the poisonous air in Beijing with frightening regularity, causing the Chinese government to (a) condemn the negative news coverage and (b) develop a new and improved strategy for dealing with a problem that’s not going away, despite the occasional blasts of fresh air from Siberia.
Happy New Year to all!

Red Alert in Beijing
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